Korea Eximbank’s Overseas Economic Research Institute (keri.koraexim.go.kr) forecasted on October 1 that exports for the 4th quarter will increase 10% compared to the same period last year, to record the first double-digit growth in nine quarters on the back of a steady momentum of recovery.

According to the ‘2013 4Q Export Outlook Report’ released by Korea Eximbank, the gradual recovery of exports which began early this year is likely to continue into the fourth quarter, as indicated by a fourth consecutive quarter of increase in the Export Leading Index, an indicator developed by the bank to predict the movement of exports..


2013 1Q : 0.3%
2013 2Q : 0.8%
2013 3Q : 0.6%
2013 4Q : 0.6%

The Export Leading Index is a composite index which combines an array of variables that influence Korea’s exports, including the economic conditions of export markets, price competitiveness of export items, export outlook of individual industries, and company sales forecasts.

A Korea Eximbank official attributed the rise in the Export Leading Index to “a recovery in the U.S. job market, improving consumer confidence, continued stimulus, rebound in China’s economic indicators, and sustained recovery of the IT industry.” The official added, however, that “the still-unresolved financial instability of emerging markets including India and Turkey may yet prove to be a destabilizing factor.”